Estados Buenos Para Entrar vs Estados Buenos Para Salir
📖 11 min lectura
🎓 Módulo 3 - Lección 2
🔄 EL CONCEPTO DE "DIRECCIÓN DEL FLUJO"
No todos los estados son simétricos. Algunos son:
- ✅ Excelentes para RECIBIR freight (buenos rates entrando)
- ❌ Terribles para SALIR (malos rates, poco freight saliendo)
Y viceversa.
📊 LA MATRIZ DE FLUJO
| Categoría | Característica | Ejemplos |
|---|---|---|
| BALANCED 🟢🟢 | Buen freight IN & OUT Best case scenario |
Illinois (Chicago), Georgia (Atlanta), Texas (Dallas/Houston), Michigan (Detroit), Ohio |
| IMPORT-HEAVY 🟢🔴 | Good freight IN Poor freight OUT |
California (LA ports), Florida (consumer goods), Arizona (Phoenix distribution) |
| DEAD ZONES 🔴🔴 | Poor freight IN & OUT Avoid unless premium |
Montana, Wyoming, West Texas (Laredo, El Paso), Rural Midwest |
STRATEGY:
- Balanced: Build circuit around these
- Import-heavy: Charge premium going IN, have backhaul plan
- Dead zones: Only go if rate compensates repositioning + wait
🗺️ FREIGHT FLOW PATTERNS
WEST → EAST (Import dominance)
- LA/Long Beach ports → Midwest/East Coast
- High rates westbound (empty returns)
- Lower rates eastbound (competitive)
- Strategy: Favor eastbound loads
HUBS (Balanced in all directions)
- Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas
- Consistent freight 360°
- "Safe haven" zones
- Strategy: Always profitable to position here
📍 ANÁLISIS ESTADO POR ESTADO
🟢🟢 TIER 1: BALANCED STATES
ILLINOIS (Chicago)
- IN: 🟢🟢 Manufacturing, ag, distribution
- OUT: 🟢🟢 Consumer goods, auto parts
- Avg rate IN: $1.55/mi
- Avg rate OUT: $1.50/mi
- Note: Weekend freight slower
GEORGIA (Atlanta)
- IN: 🟢🟢 Distribution, imports via Savannah
- OUT: 🟢🟢 Manufacturing, distribution
- Avg rate IN: $1.60/mi
- Avg rate OUT: $1.55/mi
- Note: Q4 is insane for outbound
MICHIGAN (Detroit)
- IN: 🟢🟢 Auto parts, manufacturing
- OUT: 🟢🟢 Automotive, ag
- Avg rate IN: $1.65/mi
- Avg rate OUT: $1.60/mi
- Note: Q1 retooling = golden period
🟢🔴 TIER 2: IMPORT-HEAVY
CALIFORNIA (LA/Oakland)
- IN: 🟢🟢 High demand, ports busy
- OUT: 🔴 Expensive, competitive
- Avg rate IN: $1.70/mi
- Avg rate OUT: $1.10/mi (ouch)
- Note: Charge premium IN unless backhaul to AZ/NV
FLORIDA (Miami/Orlando/Tampa)
- IN: 🟢 Consumer goods, seasonal
- OUT: 🔴 Limited manufacturing
- Avg rate IN: $1.50/mi (seasonal $1.80 in winter)
- Avg rate OUT: $1.05/mi
- Note: Q1 snowbird season = good IN rates
🔴🔴 TIER 3: DEAD ZONES
WEST TEXAS (Laredo, El Paso)
- IN: 🔴 Border towns, low freight
- OUT: 🔴🔴 Terrible backhaul
- Avg rate OUT: $0.85-1.10/mi
- Wait time: 48-96 hours
- Strategy: Charge $1.80+ to go there, plan repositioning
💰 ESTRATEGIA DE PRICING POR DIRECCIÓN
| De → A | Strategy |
|---|---|
| Balanced → Balanced | Standard rates ($1.40-1.60/mi) |
| Balanced → Import-Heavy | Premium +$0.20/mi (compensate bad backhaul) |
| Import-Heavy → Balanced | Can accept lower ($1.20-1.35) - escaping dead zone |
| Balanced → Dead Zone | Premium +$0.35-0.50/mi (compensate reposition + wait) |
| Dead Zone → Anywhere | Break-even acceptable (just getting out) |
🎯 LANE STRATEGY
No solo zonas, sino RUTAS balanceadas:
| Lane | Both Ways? | Avg Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit ↔ Chicago | YES ✅ | $1.60/mi |
| Chicago ↔ Atlanta | YES ✅ | $1.55/mi |
| Atlanta ↔ Charlotte | YES ✅ | $1.50/mi |
| Detroit → LA | ONE WAY 🔴 | $1.75/mi IN |
| LA → Detroit | ONE WAY ✅ | $1.20/mi OUT |
| Anywhere → Laredo | ONE WAY ⚠️ | $1.80/mi IN |
| Laredo → Anywhere | ONE WAY 🔴 | $0.95/mi OUT |
💡 CONCLUSIÓN CLAVE
No todos los estados son iguales
Algunos son highways, otros son dead-ends
REGLA DE ORO:
- Build circuit around BALANCED states
- Charge PREMIUM to go to import-heavy states
- Have EXIT PLAN before entering dead zones
- Favor LANES (not just destinations)
Think in CYCLES, not one-way trips