Great States to Enter vs Great States to Exit

📖 11 min read 🎓 Module 3 - Lesson 2

The concept of "freight direction"

Not all states are created equal. Some places are:

  • ✅ Amazing to drive INTO (High rates on the way there)
  • ❌ Absolutely terrible to drive OUT OF (Trash rates, zero freight leaving)

And exactly the reverse is true for others.

The freight flow matrix

Balanced 🟢🟢

Strong freight IN & OUT — the ultimate best case scenario.

Examples: Illinois (Chicago), Georgia (Atlanta), Texas (Dallas/Houston), Michigan (Detroit), Ohio

Import-Heavy 🟢🔴

Good freight paying well to go IN. Very poor freight trying to leave.

Examples: California (LA ports), Florida (consumer goods), Arizona (Phoenix distribution)

Dead Zones 🔴🔴

Poor freight going IN & OUT. Avoid unless they pay a massive premium.

Examples: Montana, Wyoming, West Texas (Laredo, El Paso), Rural Midwest

Your playbook strategy:

  • Balanced: Build your primary driving circuits around these states.
  • Import-heavy: Charge a massive premium to go IN, and have your backhaul plan ready before you accept.
  • Dead zones: Only go if the rate fully covers your crazy repositioning and wait time.

Mastering freight flow patterns

West → East (The Import Dominance)

  • LA/Long Beach ports moving goods → Midwest/East Coast
  • High rates heading westbound (brokers need vans to take empties back)
  • Lower rates heading eastbound (hyper-competitive market)
  • Strategy: Position yourself to ride the eastbound wave when possible.

The Major Hubs (Balanced in all directions)

  • Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas
  • Consistent, reliable freight 360° around the compass.
  • These are your "Safe Haven" zones.
  • Strategy: It is almost always a profitable move to reposition yourself towards a hub.

State-by-state breakdown

Tier 1: The Balanced States 🟢🟢

Illinois (Chicago Area)
IN🟢🟢 Heavy manufacturing, agriculture, distribution
OUT🟢🟢 Consumer goods and auto parts
Average rate IN$1.55/mi
Average rate OUT$1.50/mi

Note: freight slows down considerably over the weekend.

Georgia (Atlanta Area)
IN🟢🟢 Distribution hub, imports via Savannah
OUT🟢🟢 Manufacturing and distribution
Average rate IN$1.60/mi
Average rate OUT$1.55/mi

Note: Q4 (holidays) is absolutely insane for outbound freight.

Michigan (Detroit Area)
IN🟢🟢 Auto parts, just-in-time delivery
OUT🟢🟢 Automotive assembly, agriculture
Average rate IN$1.65/mi
Average rate OUT$1.60/mi

Note: Q1 factory retooling is the golden period here.

Tier 2: Import-Heavy Traps 🟢🔴

California (LA/Oakland)
IN🟢🟢 Extremely high demand, ports bustling
OUT🔴 Very expensive, hyper-competitive
Average rate IN$1.70/mi
Average rate OUT$1.10/mi (ouch)

Note: always charge a heavy premium to go IN, unless you have a guaranteed backhaul to AZ/NV waiting.

Florida (Miami/Orlando/Tampa)
IN🟢 Lots of consumer goods, very seasonal
OUT🔴 Barely any outbound manufacturing
Average rate IN$1.50/mi (jumps to $1.80+ in winter)
Average rate OUT$1.05/mi

Note: snowbird season (Q1) brings fantastic inbound rates.

Tier 3: The Dead Zones 🔴🔴

West Texas (Laredo, El Paso)
IN🔴 Border towns, low inbound demand
OUT🔴🔴 Nightmare backhaul market
Average rate OUT$0.85-$1.10/mi
Wait time48-96 hours

Strategy: demand $1.80+/mi just to go there, and financially plan for your long repositioning drive.

Smart pricing based on direction

Balanced → BalancedStandard rates ($1.40-$1.60/mi)
Balanced → Import-HeavyPremium +$0.20/mi
Import-Heavy → BalancedCan accept lower ($1.20-$1.35)
Balanced → Dead ZonePremium +$0.35-$0.50/mi
Dead Zone → AnywhereBreak-even acceptable

Import-Heavy → Balanced: you're paying to escape a dead zone. Balanced → Dead Zone: covers your idle wait and repositioning costs. Dead Zone → Anywhere: just get out of there.

Building your lane strategy

Stop thinking just in zones. Start thinking in balanced lanes:

Detroit ↔ ChicagoBoth ways ✅ — $1.60/mi
Chicago ↔ AtlantaBoth ways ✅ — $1.55/mi
Atlanta ↔ CharlotteBoth ways ✅ — $1.50/mi
Detroit → LAOne way 🔴 — $1.75/mi IN
LA → DetroitOne way ✅ — $1.20/mi OUT
Anywhere → LaredoOne way ⚠️ — $1.80/mi IN
Laredo → AnywhereOne way 🔴 — $0.95/mi OUT

Not all states are created equal. Some are highways to wealth; others are complete dead-ends.

The golden rule: build your driving circuits around BALANCED states, charge a heavy premium to drive into import-heavy states, always have an exit plan before entering a dead zone, and favor balanced lanes over one-off destinations. Think in full cycles, not just one-way trips.